A prognostic model for multiple-embryo transfers

Magli, Cristina and Corani, Giorgio and Giusti, Alessandro and Castelletti, Eleonora and Gambardella, Luca Maria and Gianaroli, Luca (2012) A prognostic model for multiple-embryo transfers. Human Reproduction, 27 (2). pp. 162-205. ISSN 1460-2350

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The EU prognostic model is composed by two sub-models: the E sub-model estimates the probability of an embryo being viable; the U sub-model estimates the probability of the woman to sustain a viable embryo (maternal receptivity). The establishment of pregnancy requires one or more viable embryos and a receptive maternal environment. There is however no general consensus on which variable to included in the E and U sub-models. On a related topic, defining a strong predictor of embryo viability is still an open problem. Morphological criteria are used to identify top-quality embryos; some studies suggest that better predictivity can be achieved combining into a single score the grades obtained by the embryo in different stages. We thus scored the embryos as non-top, top and top-history, the latter score being assigned to embryos judged of top quality in several observations. In this study we analyzed 352 IVF cycles (average patients age: 36 years; average number of transferred embryos: 2; clinical pregnancy rate: 21.5%) through the EU model, adopting a statistical criterion to choose the variables in the E and U sub-model, assessed the viabilities of non-top, top and top-history embryos and measured the predictive ability of the model.

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