Grey-box system identification of building thermal dynamics using only smart meter and air temperature data

Nespoli, Lorenzo and Medici, Vasco and Rudel, Roman (2015) Grey-box system identification of building thermal dynamics using only smart meter and air temperature data. In: 14th International Conference of the International Building Performance Simulation Association, 7,8,9 December 2015, Hyderabad, India. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Accurate simulations of building thermal dynamics are crucial to the validation of load management algorithms involving the control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), as many control strategies make use of them to estimate the internal state of the controlled system. The recent diffusion of inexpensive smart meters and environmental sensors makes data available for an inexpensive system identification of building thermal dynamics models. In this study we explore the possibility to identify building thermal dynamics based on electrical power and temperature measurements only. A number of thermalelectrical equivalent models of increasing complexity are proposed and their parameters estimated based on real data acquired from a test building located in Lugano, Switzerland. The possibility to use photovoltaic electrical power production as an indicator of solar irradiance is explored in detail.

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