Modellazione numerica dei fenomeni di dissesto e identificazione degli scenari di rischio nell’area della Val Canaria, Ticino (Svizzera)

Ambrosi, Christian and Cannata, Massimiliano and Molinari, Monia Elisa and Pozzoni, Maurizio and Baruffini, Mirko (2012) Modellazione numerica dei fenomeni di dissesto e identificazione degli scenari di rischio nell’area della Val Canaria, Ticino (Svizzera). In: MIARIA – Tecnologia e conoscenza al servizio della sicurezza. Bellavite, Missaglia, pp. 73-93. ISBN 978-88-7511-192-2

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Abstract

Within the INTERREG MIARIA project, the Institute of Earth sciences is responsible for the numerical modeling of instability phenomena and the identification of risk scenarios in the case study area of the Canaria Valley: a region located in the North of Tessin close to the Gotthard transit corridor. Among the different instabilities characterizing the valley, the most threatening phenomenon is an active complex landslide; its last collapse blocked the main river of the valley causing the generation and breaking of a natural dam and a consequent flooding downstream; in that case the consequences were very limited but currently new possible collapses could increase the risk of damage to houses and transport infrastructures. The present work aims to illustrate the modeling activities performed using three different numerical models and taking advantage of the availability of valuable laserscanning data of the landslide area before and after the 2009 event. The modeling of the collapse was carried out using the MassMov2D model and developing a semi-automatic calibration procedure that allowed to identify the parameters able to simulate as accurately as possible the observed deposits; these optimal parameters were used to simulate the collapse of a new unstable area, located close to the current collapse and geometrically defined using the FLAC model. Finally, on the basis of the barrier heights obtained by the new collapse scenario, the FLO-2D model allowed to quantify the volume of the dam and simulate a hypothetical flooding resulting from its break.

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